Frosty Night in Brazil
July 21: Not all areas are at the same elevation and low lying areas on a farm and young trees are most susceptible to damage. Determing the extent of loss though takes time and also is based in part on farmers decisions for pruning the trees.
Brazil Coffee: Assessing Damage and More Cold on the Way
The cold air that swept into the Brazilian coffee belt caused damage to a widespread area including many of the cities I visited earlier this month in Machado, Alfenas, Mozambinhu, Campos Altos, Monte Belo, Patrocinio, Monte Carmelo to name a few. Some farmers are saying that as much as 60% of their farm was blanketed in frost.
It is impossible at this point to make accurate assessments on the extent of loss and quantify it in bags.
Aerial views show the canopy of the trees, but not what is beneath. Ground surveys take enormous man power to cover the region and see each farm. There can be huge differences from one property to the next. It is simply too soon to predict the actual loss. An aerial view can determine the extent of the area that was damaged by frost, but is not reliable for converting this into bags. You can not see from above which trees were harvested and would be skeletonized anyway and not produce coffee next year. You can't determine if the tree branches are going to die and the tree may require stumping it to the ground, causing 100% loss. Ground surveys would be more revealing, but it is an extensive area on many farms to know section by section what was lost or will be lost from farmers deciding to prune, skeletonize, or stump the tree. It is impossible to cover a widespread area and determine losses that may not even be fully visible yet.
This was the worst frost since 1994 and more cold weather is forecast for July 29th.
- Several points to consider:
- There are two type of frost. One caused by temperatures at 2C or below and the other caused by a temperature range of 2C to 5 C with strong winds, which is called a black frost.
- It seems that depending on the location, either of these conditions was present, which is why leading up to the weather event, many were not worried as the forecast temperatures were not low enough to cause damage.
- The day of the frost leaves show brown tinging around edges and turn a lighter color first. Then as the day progresses, the leaves start to dry out and die.
- It can take several days for the full extent of damage to be determined depending on whether the plant itself was harmed or just the leaves and buds that had started to emerge already.
- This frost will be yet another strike against 2022/23 production and with young trees likely hurt, reduces potential for 2023/24 as well, all else being equal.
- The 2021/22 crop is largely harvested. The frost will not impact any quantity of cherry remaining on the trees, but may hurt the quality of this coffee.